Carmignac Investissement: Letter from the Fund Manager

Over the last quarter of 2024, Carmignac Investissement posted +6.91% compared with +6.71% for its reference indicator. Over the year, the fund posted a performance of +25.03% compared with +25.33% for its reference indicator.

2024 was another impressive year for risk assets, driven by the US exceptionalism. Indeed, over the last few years, the US economy has consistently defied expectations for a slowdown, and 2024 was no different.

The year can be distinctly categorized into two phases: the first four months saw mega caps driving market returns, with Europe joining the initial rally. In the second half, the US experienced a broadening of performance drivers, which was further accentuated by Trump's election, resulting in US outperformance. Despite this broader market rally, the Magnificent Seven still posted another banner year. However, the equity market rotation has been witnessed within the US but not outside of US equity markets, for now. The yearly outperformance of US equities compared to the rest of the world has never been so significant. European equities underperformed, hindered by economic weakness, political instability, and limited exposure to artificial intelligence (AI). Meanwhile, emerging market equities, despite a stimulus induced rally and partial correction in Chinese stocks and strong performances from India and Taiwan, also lagged behind their U.S. counterparts.

Against this backdrop, the fund delivered a performance of +25.03%, in line with its reference indicator, which posted a return of 25.33% in 2024.

2024 was a year in which the AI trade gained even more steam and giants like Nvidia and Meta carried the S&P 500 for the second year in a row. Heavy spending on AI by tech behemoths helped extend a rally beyond chip and server makers. In this context, our significant exposure to the entire value chain of the Tech/semiconductor industry was the main contributor to the fund’s performance, among which Nvidia, which reported a remarkable 94% year-on-year sales growth by the end of October 2024, TSMC, Amazon, Meta and Broadcom.

However, the fund experienced a slight relative underperformance due to its overweight position in the healthcare sector, which has been notably weak as the market shifted its focus towards faster-growing, more market-sensitive sectors. Additionally, the sector was adversely affected by the Trump election and the Republican sweep, as well as the potential nomination of Robert F. Kennedy as Health Secretary, and concerns about the reprioritization of U.S. government spending.

Among the others top contributors, General Electric, a US company specializing in the manufacture and maintenance of aircraft engines, experienced a sustained rise in its share price. This growth was driven by an increase in commercial aviation demand and significant improvements in profitability. Additionally, the fund benefited from its investments in the financial sector, with shares in Block, Intercontinental Exchange, and Mastercard enhancing the fund's overall performance during the period.

As we step into 2025, our investment strategy has evolved to adopt a more selective approach to the US exceptionalism trade. Recognizing that the momentum in US growth expectations has gone far and may have reached its peak, we have prioritized our focus towards lower-valuation US stocks and diversified our investments into Emerging Markets. This strategic shift has resulted in the average 1-Year Forward Price-to-Earnings (Fw P/E) ratio of our portfolio decreasing from 30x at the beginning of March to 23x by the end of December.

Following Trump's election, markets sharply differentiated between the perceived 'winners' and 'losers' of his policies, notably impacting the healthcare sector. We anticipate a rebound in this sector due to our diversified positioning, which spans pharmaceuticals, health insurance, pharmaceutical distribution, and medical equipment.

In the technology sector, our strategy emphasizes diversification along the value chain, targeting niche companies with high performance potential that often fly under the radar. Key components of this value chain are found in Taiwan and South Korea, with investments in companies like TSMC, SK Hynix, Elite Material, and Lotes.

Within the United States, our portfolio maintains a strategic balance between high-growth stocks with relatively high valuations, such as Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft, and stocks with lower growth prospects but high visibility and attractive valuations, like McKesson.

Beyond the US, our European exposure is concentrated on selected quality stocks that trade at a discount compared to their American counterparts. In emerging markets, our focus is primarily on Asian stocks that present attractive valuations, further diversifying and strengthening our global investment portfolio.